- Gold and Currency Prices in Economics: Expert or Psychologist? Every day, hundreds of "economists" on television, YouTube channels, and social media present predictions about gold and currency prices. Yet one question must be asked: if these predictions were truly accurate, why are these people getting rich from television appearances and advertising rather than from their investments? There is no such thing as genuine expertise in predicting gold and currency prices in economics. If an economist truly knew by what percentage gold prices would rise tomorrow, they would not share that with the media — they would put it into their investment portfolio. They would buy on the day prices rise and sell on the day they fall, and they would rank among the wealthiest people in the history of the world. But what actually happens is the exact opposite: millions of people believe the same prediction and move in the same direction. If everyone buys at the same time, prices rise. If everyone sells at the same time, prices fall. The prediction steers the people who make up the market, and the market in turn dismantles that prediction. Among the factors that determine direction in markets are inflation, money supply, and geopolitical tensions. When the prospect of war emerges, gold rises. When purchasing demand picks up, currencies move. Even if prices temporarily dip before inflation subsides, a renewed rise is inevitable shortly after. At this point a question arises: so why are predictions made at all? The answer is simple. What is being communicated in economics is not knowledge — it is behavioral psychology and mass manipulation. Nobody can know with certainty what will happen.
- University Admissions Counseling: What If Everyone Picks the Same Place? Every year, those who take on the role of admissions counselor during the university preference period create selection lists for hundreds of thousands of students. Yet the fundamental paradox in this field is the following: if an admissions counselor were truly knowledgeable and honest, would they have their own child's or sibling's preference list written by another counselor? The answer is obvious: they would not. Because there is a well-known dynamic in admissions counseling. When everyone chooses the same place, that place becomes popular — and this produces a deeply ironic outcome. The most striking example of this dynamic is as follows: departments that closed with the lowest rankings the previous year experience a dramatic surge in the new admissions cycle. The reason is a remarkably clever pattern of human behavior. Students seeking a second university placement, or those wishing to enroll in open education programs without an exam, flock to these departments. Nobody notices, and while everyone assumes these departments will again close with low rankings, they unexpectedly soar — becoming the intense focus of students who had previously enrolled with low scores. There is no such thing as genuine expertise in university admissions counseling.
- Earthquake Dates Geophysical engineers and geologists conduct continuous research on fault lines. The result of this work produces an extraordinarily comprehensive picture composed of historical period analyses, soil type assessments, and seismic data readings. Yet one truth remains unchanged: the date of an earthquake cannot be known with certainty. If it could, what would happen? They would warn everyone before the earthquake, evacuate the region, and all would continue their lives without ever experiencing such a tragedy. But since this does not happen, every earthquake is experienced as a shock. That said, many signs can be observed before an earthquake. There is a well-known concept in geology: when active movement begins along fault lines, small tremors occur first — known as foreshocks, or the preparatory phase. These tremors carry the character of a forewarning for the main earthquake. However, how long these tremors will last, when the main earthquake will arrive, and what its magnitude will be cannot be determined with certainty by any technology. The only thing that can be done in the field of earthquakes is to take precautions. Ground surveys, structural inspections, evacuation plans, and public awareness campaigns are among the most powerful tools available to humanity. These do not provide certainty, but they do reduce harm.
- The Climate Crisis and Famine: When Is Tomorrow? Climate scientists publish hundreds of studies proving that the world is warming, glaciers are melting, and the climate balance is deteriorating. These findings are certain. However, it is not possible to give a definitive answer to the question "when will famine begin?" When rainfall amounts decrease, when global warming accelerates, when serious disruptions emerge in the food production chain — that is when famine comes knocking. When exactly the threshold will be crossed cannot be predicted with certainty by anyone. There is a particularly noteworthy cycle here. Individuals or groups who deny global warming oppose the proposed environmental protection measures. But this opposition leads to the continuation of harmful gas emissions and actively contributes to the deepening of the climate crisis. In other words, those who deny global warming are themselves among the chief architects of the crisis. It is a tragic cycle: the denier generates the crisis, and as the crisis deepens, the insistence on denial grows stronger.
- Weather Forecasts: The Most Accurate Predictions, Yet Still Not Certain Among the four fields, the most "reliable" one is meteorology. Today, weather forecasts are supported by highly advanced computer models and satellite data. Yet they have their limits. Three-day forecasts are accurate more than ninety percent of the time. Seven-day forecasts hover around eighty percent. Beyond ten days, they cease to be forecasts and become statistical analogies — predictions of very low reliability. Here too, the same human dynamic comes into play. If a meteorologist knew with certainty that hail would fall on a specific region — down to the hour and minute — rather than announcing it on television under the headline "Disaster is coming!", they would be making enormous profits from vehicle insurance companies or agricultural exchanges in that area. But meteorologists too only sell probabilities. They present these probabilities on television screens in a dramatic tone, because ratings, clicks, and viewer attention are earned through that dramatic presentation.
- The Butterfly's Wing: Chaos Theory and the Intersection of Human Fate There is a profound parallel between the concept of "human psychology" in economics and "sensitive dependence on initial conditions" in the atmosphere. This parallel is expressed through chaos theory. A butterfly flapping its wings in the Amazon could, theoretically, trigger a storm in Europe. No matter how powerful the computers used, the movement of every air molecule in the atmosphere cannot be measured, and no definitive conclusion can be drawn from it. The same is true of economics. The market is the sum total of the fear and greed of millions of people. This sum cannot be calculated in advance, because each person makes individual decisions, and these decisions influence one another — they leap, they collide. The outcome is unpredictable.
- The Unseen and the Signs: A Quranic Perspective The common thread running through all four fields is expressed most cleanly and precisely by the Quran. In verse 59 of Surah Al-An'am, Allah says: "The keys of the unseen belong to Him alone. None knows them but He." This verse is the definitive declaration that every form of prediction or foresight available to humanity is fundamentally limited. The critical distinction to be observed here is this: the unseen cannot be known, but there are signs that lead toward the unseen. These signs are not read for the purpose of certainty — they are read for the purpose of precaution. In economics, inflation, money supply, and shifts in geopolitical balances are signs. They must be read, but they are not sufficient to know the outcome with certainty. In university admissions counseling, while seven to ten years of data would be ideal, a minimum of three to four years of tabulated data constitutes the signs. This data must be interpreted, but it is not possible to state with certainty what will happen in the future. In the case of earthquakes, foreshocks and fault movements are signs. These signs are read, precautions are taken, but the date remains unknown. In climate, declining rainfall, rising temperatures, and gas emissions are signs. Preparations are made based on these signs, but nobody knows exactly when famine will arrive. It might be said that no one is truly qualified even in data analysis — but that claim is not actually accurate. Data analysis itself is, in reality, built upon a layer of assumptions and constructs.
- What Can a Human Being Do? Four Paths The Quranic framework draws a remarkably clear outline here. A human being can do three things: read, take precautions, and place their trust in God (tawakkul). Reading means analyzing the available signs, examining the data, and drawing the soundest possible conclusions from the information at hand. At this stage, a human being can be an intelligent entity. Taking precautions means putting practical steps into action based on the conclusions drawn from reading. Balancing a portfolio in economics, creating alternatives in admissions decisions, preparing for earthquakes, building a sustainable lifestyle for the climate — all of these fall within the scope of precaution. Tawakkul means entrusting the outcome to God. After a person has taken every possible precaution, they accept that the outcome is not within their own control and rely solely upon God. There Are No Experts, But There Are Intelligent People In conclusion, the following can be said: no human being is an expert regarding gold and currency prices in economics, outcomes in university admissions counseling, earthquake dates, or the starting points of climate-related famine. Because in all of these fields, the outcome takes shape within a web of countless variables that no person can know in advance. Yet a human being is an intelligent entity. They can read the signs. They can take precautions. And they can entrust the outcome to God. The real danger lies in claiming certainty. Every voice that says "I know — act according to me" is a misleading voice. When a person says "I have read the signs, I have taken my precautions, the rest is in God's hands," they become both an intelligent and a trusting individual. The unseen cannot be known. But the signs can be read. This distinction draws both the path and the boundary of every form of analysis. And being aware of this boundary is what it truly means to be knowledgeable.
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Esir Şehrin İnsanları
Kemal Tahir
Kemal Tahir’in İşgal İstanbul’unda Parçalanan Bir Ruhun Portresi Bir imparatorluk çökerken geride kalanların ruhunda açılan yaraları, bir ulusun en karanlık anlarında kendi kimliğini nasıl aradığını
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